Tiny Nicks Playing Picks: 2/13

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Castles

NCAA Basketball – Bradley @ Missouri St -2.5 (-110): 5:00 p.m. CT on ESPN +

When the State of Missouri is playing someone in the MVC who is not Drake or Loyola, this is an excellent betting option. The bears are 0-4 both straight and ATS against these two conference leaders, but 8-1 both straight and ATS against everyone else.

Bradley doesn't get into this game until his second win on Conference Street, and 8 of his 13 MVC games this season have been single-digit margins, which is one of the reasons we're seeing such a short number here.

The Braves have been struggling to find a consistent offensive lately and a team from Missouri, who are superbly on the defensive back home, should do business here.

NCAA Basketball – Auburn +3 @ Kentucky (-110): 12:00 PM CT on CBS

This is a good choice based on how bad Kentucky has been that season. This opened at Auburn -2 so getting 3 points on that spread is a bargain compared to the opening spread.

If Auburns Sharife Cooper can set the pace of this game, it will be a long day for Kentucky, which probably can't wait for this season nightmare to end. Even when that is tight, Kentucky has had a very difficult time finishing close games, losing eight of their losses by five or less.

Here, roll with the tigers in a good old-fashioned SEC fight.

NCAA Basketball – Texas A&M-CC / Abilene Christian Via 132.5: 4:00 p.m. CT on ESPN +

This is an opportunity to take advantage of the metrics that are doing too much to determine the number. A & M Corpus Christi is very bad offensively in the course of the season and is 331st in offensive efficiency. In the meantime, Abilene Christian is the second best team in terms of defensive efficiency and defensively elite.

Given these numbers, it looks like an easy under-bet, but the trends haven't confirmed that. Abilene has discovered her offense and is 17th in the last three games with 1,139 points per possession. In conference games, including six in a row, they are 7: 1 above the target. One of them was against this A&M CC team on Monday when they scored 151 points together and the islanders are also strong 6-2 in conference games.

With the way Abilene has been making it on teams lately (at least 75 points versus the last six), that deflated total should be easy to come by.

NCAA Basketball – Arkansas @ Missouri -2.5 (-110): 3:00 p.m. CT on ESPN2

I'm a little confused by that line and expect what it feels like to have a comfortable win in Missouri. I think Arkansas is a little overrated in its market perception after teeing off Kentucky to win an 8-game losing streak against the Wildcats, a game that was essentially handed over to them late.

All of the Razorback wins last month have fallen against the bottom half of the SEC, and now they're facing a team they've already lost 13 points to at home. Missouri is likely undervalued here, having suffered an ugly defeat at Ole Miss, but this Tigers team's trend has been emotional wins followed by bad losses and major setbacks.

You should continue this against an Arkansas team in a flat spot, and this short line looks like an easy pick.

Degenerate

NCAA Basketball – Idaho @ Idaho St. -10.5 (-110): 1:00 p.m.

Idaho is objectively one of the worst teams in college basketball. On the offensive, the vandals are 333rd points per game and 330th points per possession. The defense is just as bad, 322nd in legal points and 339th in defensive efficiency.

It also looks like this winless team wrapped it up for the season as they lost their last eight games by a minimum of 14 points and an average of 21.3 points.

Idaho State has an outside shot at the Big Sky title and with a defense that allows for the 38th Least Points in the country and Star Guard Tarik Cool, they know they need to dominate this weak competition. The Bengals enjoyed beating their rivals by 26 points on Thursday and should cross here again.

Tiny Nick has had ATS 156-91 (+60.5 units) on his locks since joining Zone Coverage.

Every day he offers his locks and degenerate picks. Castles are the games he relies on. Degenerate are fun, but riskier tips.