Wednesdays continue to carry the largest NBA slates of the week, giving us a ton of early spreads and totals to exploit before injury news breaks and the markets catch up to the sharp bettors.
Super Bowl brings plethora of betting opportunities
As always, my top two early bets to target are listed below, accompanied by the respective book where you can find the odds listed.
Dallas Mavericks at Atlanta Hawks (+1.5) — PointsBet, -110
There may not be a colder team in the NBA than the Mavericks, who come into this game losers of nine of their last 11, without a win since Jan. 22.
They’ve also ranked 24th in both offense and defense over the course of those 11 games while having the seventh-lowest effective field goal percentage. To say them coming in as favorites is a surprise would be an understatement.
Gambling: NBA matchups make Monday happy
Luka Doncic can’t guard a broom this season, making this a ripe matchup for star point guard Trae Young, while the Mavericks also allow the eighth-lowest field goal percentage within five feet of the basket, catering to the strengths of John Collins and Clint Capela in the frontcourt.
Simply put, they struggle in just about every facet that Atlanta excels, making this a great opportunity to grab the Hawks as the underdog.
Phoenix Suns at New Orleans Pelicans (under 223.5) — William Hill, -110
This will be an interesting total to track, as the Suns (under record of 12-7) take on the Pelicans (under record of 7-12) with a point total that feels high for both teams.
Gambling: Two Sunday NHL games to consider betting on with some extras
The Pelicans have notoriously run at one of the faster paces in the NBA, but under new head coach Stan Van Gundy this season, their approach has changed.
With that, they now rank 18th in pace (100.00) after ranking fourth in 2019-20 (103.89). Phoenix, on the other hand, runs even slower. They rank 26th in pace (98.24) while also ranking top-five in the league in defense, creating a recipe for the under.
This total seems to be driven by recency bias,. Over the last 10 games, the Suns are averaging 111.4 points per game to the Pelicans 113.5 points per game.
Hitting those totals would barely squeak this game above the over/under. On the season as a whole, these teams both average roughly 110 points per game and, I’m comfortable with the under here at 223.5 and higher.
Contact Tom Roeder: 636-0240